20190719

Previous Forecast
Another quiet day except for a little activity in Cochise and Pima Counties

The 15Z WRFRR has struggled the past two days as it's been too active.  The 12Z WRFRR and WRFGFS (WRFNAM was missing) were better but didn't have quite enough activity in Cochise County.

Initializations
All three of the morning runs initialized the clouds in Arizona OK, but clouds were not thick enough in the vicinity of the MCV that is south of Nogales.   The initializations have an open wave in that area which kind of looks like the 500mb plot which shows a broad weak IT over NW Mexico.

The RR and the GFS had minimal PW errors while the NAM, as usual, had some significant errors, mainly in NW Mexico.  However, the errors are not as widespread or extensive as in the past few days.

Day 1
There isn't really too much to say about today as it's another down day, in spite of decent moisture.   Typically, 30-40mm would be more than enough for widespread activity, but it's just not happening this year.

Dry air advection is underway today, and 850mb dew-point temperatures drop below 10C by later this afternoon.  Not good at all!

The afternoon Tucson forecast Skew-T is pathetic.  Almost no CAPE.

The 15Z WRFRR is available now as I put off writing this discussion as it's so depressing.  It does have a few storms along the border later this afternoon unlike any of the other runs which have nothing.  It also develops a few thunderstorms near Douglas this evening too.

Day 2
This is all I have to say about tomorrow.  Don't bother looking for a discussion because there won't be one.