Arizona Regional WRF Discussion, 20160429

This year, I join the 21st century and will publish my daily discussions via this blog.  I will still use an email list to alert individuals who would like to know as soon as there is a new post so let me know if you would like to be included.

Day 2
A sequence of troughs have been moving through the SW US as the flow has finally split and looks more El Nino like.  Too bad this didn't occur a few months back.  In spite of limited moisture, there is some activity forecast for the Phoenix area tomorrow afternoon as a very strong shortwave rotates into Arizona.

 Only limited moisture is associated with the system as IPW is at the most, 20mm.  In spite of this, with cold air aloft and surface heating, a small amount of CAPE is forecast by later in the afternoon from Maricopa county and northward.

The forecast Skew-t for Phoenix shows only a small amount of CAPE.  Of more interest is the relatively deep PBL displaying an inverted V profile.  Thus some strong gusty winds are possible, associated with the weak convection.

Convection forms by early afternoon in the area of strong upper support with a fair amount across the NW part of the inner domain.

 By late afternoon into the early evening, weak convection forms in the lower deserts in and around the Phoenix area.

It is likely that a few of the storms will be accompanied by isolated strong winds which may stir up areas of blowing dust in and around the Phoenix area.

WRFNAM