Activity was limited to the higher elevations of eastern Pima and western Cochise counties. Some isolated spots had very heavy rain. All the model runs were too widespread with precipitation. The WRFGFS was the best.
Weak mid level flow is present over southern Arizona with perhaps a weak IT between Tucson and El Paso. The 12Z initializations all have a weak IT just east of Tucson which looks reasonable. Clouds aren't an issue. RR, NAM, and GFS IPW initializations all have only minimal errors. Model confidence is high today.
Day 1
Nearly 40mm of IPW at Tucson this morning which was more than was forecast. Moderate low level flow continues to advect moisture into SE Arizona - more than enough for activity there today.
Impressive CAPE across SE Arizona and even up towards the White Mountains. More than was forecast yesterday. Goes to show you how quick the conditions can change during the monsoon season and why one shouldn't rely on the Day 2 forecasts too much.
Mid level winds continue to be very poor with a 500mb high center on top of Tucson as well as warm air with temperatures around -5C. As usual, it's a battle between the pluses and minuses. It looks like a repeat of yesterday with strong storms with very heavy rain locked over the higher terrain.
As predicted yesterday, CAPE is very high for the Tucson area during the afternoon. However, multiple inversions are present thus a strong outflow is going to be needed for deep convection. Like yesterday, maybe a storm or two can get going in/near Tucson. They certainly are not going to move in from anywhere due to almost no mid level steering winds.
Deep convection forms by early afternoon over the higher terrain of far SE Arizona and continues to spread back to the west, similar to yesterday. All model runs predict this, but the WRFGFS and RR have weaker storms in eastern Pima than the WRFNAM.
A few storms continue across eastern Pima/Santa Cruz into the early evening.
Day 2
Much less activity as dry air is over much of the state with only the far SE having any moisture/CAPE. Even here, activity is limited.
It looks like after today, there will be a long period of no activity. The WRFGFS 7 day has nothing and this break could even be longer as the ECMWF continues with various troughs over the west out to 240 hours. It is possible that brief incursions of wet air may come in to SE Arizona from time to time from strong NW Mexico convection, but that is probably just wishful thinking.
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