20160721, extended

I wanted to talk about the possibility of the first decent gulf surge possibility of the summer.  This morning, satellite imagery indicates another tropical system spinning up off the coast of Mexico.

The ECMWF takes this system on a more northerly track and brings it to a location SW of Baja Sunday/Monday, favorable for triggering a big surge event. (graphics from PSU Ewall)

It looks like starting Monday, it will be very active as significant moisture returns to Arizona.

The big 500mb high over much of the country weakens by this time and is centered over the 4 Corners region providing favorable steering winds across the state thus a potentially very active period on tap early next week.