20160724 Day 2

The Day 2 forecast is very uncertain due to what or what does not happen today.  There could be debris clouds present, large areas of rain cooled air/ground to make model initializations challenging.
The gulf surge peters out tomorrow, but leaves behind plenty of moisture across the state.  However, drier easterly flow is again attempting to push into far eastern Arizona.

CAPE decreases with the WRFNAM decreasing CAPE the most, mainly in the low elevations.  There is still plenty and will support deep convection across much of the higher terrain of the state.

Of interest at 500mb is an IT (or MCV?) located over SW Arizona/far NW Sonora.  All the model runs have this feature which acts to increase southeasterly steering flow over much of SE/SC Arizona which may assist storm organization and movement into lower elevations of SE Arizona.

The typical locations see storms forming during the afternoon and by late afternoon, they have moved close to the Tucson and Phoenix areas.

CAPE seems insufficient to support more than just a few areas of weak convection in either Tucson or Phoenix.  The pathetic monsoon of 2016 continues.