20160729 Day 2

Some uncertainty surrounds tomorrow's forecast due to the impact of the active evening ahead today.     A gulf surge continues to import moisture into the state as southerly flow becomes established all across NW Mexico up to 850mb.   So calling this a 'gulf surge' is not quite right

as the southerly winds span more than just over the G of C.

CAPE over SC out to western Arizona decreases, as one would expect after a big day.  SE Arizona, which was left out of the action, has very high CAPE present in all the model runs.

Steering flow weakens somewhat as the 500mb high center meanders around NE Arizona into NW NM.  Temperatures are still around -7C thus quite cool.

As is so often the case with a big surge, the PBL is cooled and not deeply mixed.  The wind profile continues to be excellent.

This is even more pronounced at Phoenix as a strong cap is in place.  Excellent CAPE, moisture, and OK winds are the positives, but it's going to take a miracle to get that profile to go.

Once again, big storms line up over the Rim and White mountains with some deep convection going over far SE Arizona.  All the WRF runs are quite similar so there is some confidence in the models. 

Outflow winds are not nearly as strong due to the increased moisture and relatively shallow PBL.  Outflows converge over eastern Pima county during the late afternoon and early evening providing the local lift needed for deep convection.

Strong storms are in and around the Tucson area during the early evening with some developing into Pinal county later.  It's unlikely that Phoenix will see any significant activity.