20220616

 Discussion

Discussions will be sporadic this season due to several reasons. I will try to get one out for what I think will be significant events, but there are no promises.

Monsoon flow has slowly been sputtering to life on and off over the last week. Hurricane Blas is spinning off the coast of Mexico, increasing moisture over the southern Gulf and, if you look closely, all the way up to the Arizona border. This can also be seen in the Suominet GPSIPW data. 

The 500mb map indicates a broad anticyclone is over much of central and eastern CONUS. Flow over Arizona is light but is now generally southeasterly, favorable for moisture advection from Mexico.

Day 1

Moisture slowly increases over southeastern Arizona, but 850mb Tds are still lame.

There is enough moisture to support a few showers and weak storms in far southeastern Arizona later this afternoon.

Day 2

A strong surge of moisture gets underway during the early morning hours resulting in much wetter air over southern Arizona. While Blas doesn't get very close to the Gulf of California, it is close enough to help trigger the surge, along with the approach of a strong trough currently located over the NW CONUS.

This increase in moisture and approaching trough will support a few showers and weak storms during the morning hours.

This trough's track is a bit farther to the south, resulting in moderate SW winds over most of Arizona. As others have mentioned, this looks like a late summer transition event, but in June instead!  

Now, this is what I like to see; 850mb Td>=10C.

Very impressive CAPE and PW for mid-June. The wind profile isn't that great as there is little or no directional or speed shear.

The model consensus is that stronger storms are confined to eastern Arizona during the afternoon hours.

If the Phoenix area CAPE forecast verifies, there could be some strong storms, later in the evening.