20160811

Previous Day
A complex and active day with activity mainly in NW Arizona with some scattered evening activity in the Phoenix area.  There really was no decent model run from the suite.  However, the WRFGFS did do a nice job with the morning convection around Pinal county, which continues as of this writing.  Also, the 0Z WRFGFS and both 6Z model runs picked up on the morning activity.

Initializations
As some of the overnight runs did have the morning activity, they may be somewhat accurate today.  The 12Z WRFNAM run also developed convection over Pinal and the Phonix area this morning too so will also be of use.  The 12Z WRFRR and WRFGFS had nothing.

Day 1

The PBL remains very wet with early afternoon 850mb dewpoints still around 15C most locations as moist air continues to be advected on southerly flow.

The 500mb trough has slowly moved east and has filled which has decreased mid-level winds over northern Arizona.  There may still be enough flow, cool air, and moisture to support some organized storms across northern Arizona today.

 Morning convection has left behind an area of stable air over south-central Arizona which looks accurate. Moderate to high CAPE is forecast for much of the rest of the state.

WRFNAM

Scattered storms form mainly over the higher terrain during the afternoon which doesn't move much due to weak steering flow across central and southern Arizona.

It looks unlikely for anything significant in Tucson as CAPE is minimal due to cooling and drying of the PBL.

Much the same situation in Phoenix.

Day 2
Morning activity comes to an end as CAPE is insufficient to support activity.

Dry air starts to move in which will decrease activity over most of the state.

Only a few isolated weak storms over far eastern Arizona tomorrow.