20160810 Day 2

There continues to be a risk for early morning activity around Tucson to Phoenix as the low levels remain very moist.  The 12Z vertical profile at Phoenix has around 1500 J/Kg CAPE and is close to convecting.  Tucson looks very similar.

In fact, the WRFGFS does form strong storms early tomorrow morning between Tucson and Phoenix and continues them after sunrise.

Ver wet air continues to be present,  in the lower levels, over the state as the 850mb dewpoint temperatures are as high as 17C.

The 500mb trough moves slowly eastward and mid level winds decrease slightly.  Mid-level winds become very light across southern Arizona.  Somewhat cooler air  over northern Arizona and slightly stronger winds may support stronger storms.

Again, significant CAPE is present during the afternoon as Tucson has 1800 J/Kg.  Just like today, an inversion is present at the top of the PBL, the PBL is relatively cool,  and mid-level winds are weak.  Thus another repeat where storms mainly develop over higher terrain and don't move much.   Heating may be less than what is seen below if morning convection happens to form.

Scattered storms are mainly over the higher terrain of SE Arizona throughout the afternoon.

At Phoenix, much drier air is present just above 850.  In spite of moderate CAPE, convection is unlikely.

Mainly quiet during the evening with the only activity over far SE Arizona.