Arizona WRF Discussion: 20160809 Day 2

Day 1 update
The 700mb low can be seen clearly in the visible satellite imagery and RADAR and is located south of Douglas moving slowly to the northeast. The morning runs all moved this feature to the west. This is a big error as the IT (giant MCV?) has been at least partially responsible for the widespread activity over southern Arizona. Skies have cleared over far SE Arizona and convection is now underway and this feature is supplying some support. Thus, it is more likely that it will be more active in SE Arizona and some storms could again make their way as far west as Tucson late this afternoon and into the evening.

Day 2
What's left of Javier remains around southern Baja. Very wet air continues to flow into Arizona with 850mb dewpoint temperatures around 15 to 16C.

Plenty of CAPE available again tomorrow. The key word is 'potential'.

The 500mb pattern has a strong trough moving across eastern CA and NW Arizona tomorrow while southern Arizona has weak flow with warm air of -4 to -5C. The trough might supply some support for thunderstorms over NW Arizona and looks to not be far enough south to help out with Phoenix or Tucson storms.

The PBL does not recover much tomorrow in spite of full sun and over much of the lower elevations, there is a capping inversion present. Decent CAPE exists, but mid-level steering is poor, out of the southwest at only 5-15 knots.

A similar situation in the Phoenix area except the dry air has worked down a little lower. Some sort of lift, either meso or synoptic is going to be needed for convection. At this point, I don't see either occurring as the trough is too far north and outflows are likely to be weak due to the wet state of the atmosphere.

Deep convection is slow to start and by later in the afternoon, only southeastern and eastern Arizona see much activity. The runs are a bit different with the details as the WRFGFS has more activity for far southern Arizona.