20160629 Day 2

It doesn't get any easier tomorrow.  The WRFGFS and WRFNAM both bring the IT into southwestern AZ with fairly strong southeasterly flow across southern and eastern Arizona.

Adding to the confusion, the WRFNAM is much(4-10mm) wetter than the WRFGFS over much of the southern 1/3 of the state.  It's certainly possible the IPW could be this high as very wet air is to the south in Sonora (60mm at Navojoa).

WRFNAM

Widespread morning showers and some storms are present which will again stabilize some areas thus putting a damper on later storms.  A "too wet to rain" situation where as little lifting will cause clouds to rapidly form and restrict further heating and deep convection.  The best chance for stronger storms look to be eastern Arizona and up over the White Mountains and Rim.

WRFNAM

With all the moisture, storms that do form will produce very heavy rain and wet microbursts as IPW is so high.  Is this really still June???  Looks more like August!

Big storms are possible during the early evening in and around the Tucson area as well as continuing up north.  It looks like Phoenix remains mostly quiet except for a chance early morning.