20160624

Initializations
The 12Z NAM cloud initialization was poor as it missed the majority of the clouds.  The 6Z NAM and GFS as well as the 12Z GFS were all fairly good.  6 and 12Z NAM and 12Z RR had some large IPW initialization errors in northern Mexico where it was initialized too wet.  The assimilation routine may not be able to correct such a large error.  Part of the problem may be that there are only 3 sites reporting from Mexico this morning.  The 6 and 12Z WRFGFS look to have the best initialization.


Day 1

Convective debris clouds are again present over much of eastern Arizona which is restricting surface heating somewhat.  However, IPW continues to increase as Tucson now reports 36mm which was similar to the WRFGFS forecast from yesterday.   The CAPE forecast indicates only low amounts only over SE Arizona during the afternoon.

Compared to the forecast from yesterday, less convection is expected as clouds are restricting heating and only a few showers and weak storms are present by late afternoon over SE Arizona.

Day 2

A similar situation tomorrow as storms are restricted to the higher elevations of SE Arizona.